中文
During the 2024 China Import Coal International Summit hosted by Sxcoal on March 8, industry experts and government officials shared insightful views on China's macro economy, coal production, consumption and import, as well as development and prospects of other major coal consumers (India, Japan, South Korea) and producers (Indonesia, Australia, Mongolia and Russia).
We have summarized part of the key points as below:
China's coal consumption is expected to peak soon amid the rapid development of renewable energy, although its fundamental role in securing energy supply is hard to change, said Zhang Hong, deputy secretary-general of China National Coal Association. »More
As current supply is abundant to cover the demand, China's coal production capacity is expected to increase at a slower pace this year, according to Feng Dongbin, vice general manager of industry consultant Fenwei. »More
With an anticipated rough balance between supply and demand, China's coal imports are expected not to rise further in 2024 after hitting a record high a year earlier, pointed out Wu Wenbin, head of Coal Management at Guangdong Energy Group. He projected the country's coal imports to range 450-500 Mt this year, compared to 474.42 Mt imported last year. »More
While China's coal demand is slowing down, India's coal consumption is projected to exceed 1.5 Bt by 2030, driven by robust power demand, according to Abhi Bannerjee, assistant general manager of BigMint. »More
On the supply side, after a substantial increase in coal exports last year, Indonesia's thermal coal export is expected to dip in 2024 amid moderate global demand, noted Hendra Sinadia, executive director of the Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI).
The country has seen the proportion of coal exports to its production decreasing over the past eight years, dropping from 80% in 2016 to 66.82% in 2023. In 2023, Indonesia's mandatory coal supply for the domestic market reached a historical high of 213 Mt. Sinadia expected domestic supply to decrease slightly to just over 200 Mt in 2024.
Zoljargal Jargalsaikhan Zolo, executive director of Mongolian Coal Association, said the total capacities of Mongolia-China border crossings will reach 225+ Mt in the coming five years, easily handling 100 Mt of coal. However, he cautioned Mongolia's coal exports could fall 13.8% to 60 Mt in 2024, citing logistics as the biggest challenge to boosting sales to China. »More
Meanwhile, according to Javkhlan Ivanov, chief operating official of Mongolian Stock Exchange, as of end-Feb 2024, the total quanity of coal traded at the exchange reached 18.8 Mt, helping boosting revenue by $225.44 million.
Russian miners, however, are facing difficulties in boosting coal exports after Western countries escalated sanctions after the conflict in Ukraine, with the latest US sanctions on two major producers Mechel and SUEK. Yet, they still managed to record a 4.7% YoY growth in coal exports to 221 Mt in 2023.
With a shift of destinations to Asia, especially China, the long-distance transportation, Russia's reimposed export duty, and China's reinstated import duty will weaken Russian coal's competitive edge over Australian coal, which enjoys zero-tariff under China-Australia FTA. Some Russian miners may have to reduce production or even face shutdowns, said Sam Shen, head of sales, China region, Russian ELGA Group. »More
That could be true, given the appealings of premium quality Australian coal after China's lift of unofficial import ban early last year. According to Jenny Li, senior analyst with Wood Mackenzie, Australia's coal production started to recover in 2013 after decreasing by 60+ Mt from 2019 to 2022, and will further rebound this year. »More
Specifically, met coal production, after four years of continuous decline, is expected to stabilize and rise in 2024, with an anticipated increase of over 10 Mt YoY. She projected Australian met coal exports to China will increase to 8+ Mt in 2024.
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(Writing by Alex Guo Editing by Harry Huo)
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